Rainer's Investment Insights

Finally, after a few technical hitches we are able to show up our model portfolios again. Of course, the chart is now also back on its extra page in the blog and will be updated regularly. It's a promise. As you can see, our "downtime" in October and November, sticking with a risk averse outlook and - bonds -, resulted in the MSCI World catching up with our conservative portfolio.  Instead of MSCI World, we ought to say US stocks, which were about the only regional index that had a clear run up. The more risk oriented portfolios however, still are well above all benchmark and comparable funds. You probably noted a sizeable correction mid-November.  That is when we have taken a first step back into equity, - and a large portion of high yield bonds.  We had to have patience to see a positive result, but we are slowly getting there.  All portfolios showed positive returns for 2011, and are up since beginning of the year, too.  If you are conscientious in your o...

Just a quick one today, or 'two' I should say. There are still a few tickets for Tuesday, 11 January 2011, at the HDB Hub, where we will present our outlook and strategies for 2011.  If you can come, drop me a line quickly so I can reserve your seat. If you order through me, it's a complimentary ticket, - otherwise it's $30.00 at the door. Gold prices have touched on the 1360 level, which denotes crucial support. If prices now close below 1360 in the next few trading days then we can safely assume that gold is ready to correct down to about 1295, the level I expect to reach sometime in February.  If this happens, we will go ahead and execute the proposed changes as outlined to our investors last week, - and then wait and see what the rest of the market does: If gold does indeed correct now, then the envisaged weakness in currencies this month becomes a non-event.  It might also suggest that bond prices (treasuries and sovereigns) will take a dive, and commodity pric...

In my youth, the turn of the years was a "serious" affair.  Indeed, we frowned upon the noise making drunkenness that many fancied.  Instead, a few good friends would gather on New Year's Eve at one of the many ski huts on top of a mountain, devoid of running water, electricity, telephone, TV etc. It was our hideaway from all mundane life for a few glorious hours.  At typically -20 ⁰ C, the air up there is absolutely still, noises muffled by the powdery snow all around us.  A few yards away the steep slope, which will carry us back into the valley later. Virgin snow as far as the eyes can see! A crackling fire, a few simple home-made foods and an evening filled with songs and stories from the old year, while candles and torches shed a magical light into our humble surroundings. The closer we get toward midnight, our thoughts would turn gradually inward, well aware of the milestone we are about to pass and the new road we would need to travel.  As a final ...