Rainer's Investment Insights

While stock markets appear to take a wait and see stance, Europe's future is once again in the hands of its politicians, who meet on Friday.  Forget Wikileaks, here comes StanPooLeaks Not as catchy for sure, but just as fumbling, and yes, just about as smelly as it sounds!  Standard & Poors muscle in on the debate over Europe again.  In case anyone was doubting the seriousness of the situation and - the concern of the US in this respect, Standard & Poors published their preliminary findings about where Europe's credit worthiness is heading - in time to wake up even the sleepiest of undecided leaders.  Suitably, the response from Germany in particular ranged from robust to arrogant, just what must be expected.  They have not forgotten that it was the same rating agency that could not find anything wrong with Lehman Brothers a week before it collapsed, nor did they bat an eyelid when advising on the now notorious mortgage certificates touted to foreign -, and of course

TO REDIRECT TO THE LATEST UPDATE, CLICK HERE! Since the last update in September , it was like living in revolving doors! Swings in the markets were never longer than a few weeks and yet the velocity and size of the moves, tempting on the way up, destructive on the way down, caused havoc with time lines and - bottom lines.  However, WE DID NOT SIT ON THE SIDELINES THIS TIME, but tried our best to recapture the losses of early August! First, the overview since inception in October 2009, for Portfolios A-D, with D (yellow line) being the highest risk. For more description please click here . RETURN OVERVIEW SINCE INCEPTION: (25 months) (on SGD basis!) MSCI WORLD                      = down -3%  MSCI Asia Pacific                = down -11% LionGlobal MAP Growth   = down  -7% LionGlobal MAP Balanced= down  -2%  United Millennium Trust1  = down  -5.5% Port A (conservative)        =  up     +9% PortB (balanced)                =  up    +12% PortC (growth)                   =

The noise of the talking heads has become deafening.  Most investors have lost heart as a result.  That makes it more difficult to keep to a distinct and clearly marked investment path. However, is this miserable mood really justified? - No, no I am not talking about fundamentals, the potential fallout from Europe imploding, US not agreeing to reduce a deficit, instead rather harp on overdone ideologies. And I am sure you can come up with another 50 examples of why calamity in stock markets is just around the corner.  I am talking about technical analysis of the advanced kind, the ones with reliable forecast ability. It's all in the eyes of the beholder: if you are uncertain and more inclined to expect the worst, no amount of fair indications will turn you head.  What is needed is the convinction that a problem, ANY problem, will come with adequate solutions, ultimately, if we only keep our wits together.  Sadly, the majority of our news caster have been 'murdoched

iGP, the Singapore platform for Accredited Investors , has published an interview in their latest iGP magazine.  Since I am one of three investment directors providing answers to iGP questions, I wanted to include it here on the blog as well, as you may not be able to obtain the magazine where you are. For ease of differentiation, my responses are in bold .  But that does not mean that the other guys aren't worth reading. Titled "Finding Answers Amidst the Volatility" , iGP considers it "...wise to relook at your investment strategies. Find out what three investment experts have to say." "With the kind of market volatility we have seen this year... "I t has been quite a year. The events in Egypt and Libya affecting the Middle East as well as the catastrophe in Japan early in the year had put some pres­sure on the global markets. Coupled with the ongoing US and Europe debt crisis, investors find the markets to be fraught with uncertaint

Financial Markets are moving so fast nowadays it is not surprising for disillusion to set in among even the most seasoned of observers.  When dealing with mutual funds only, this pace is becoming hazardous on many levels, especially the reaction and preparation time of bringing portfolios in line with moving markets. What's Happening To Markets? If you believe the talking heads, it's all about Europe, Greece and now Italy that are scaring away punters.  Pardon me for sounding terribly naive, but was it not to be expected that after a run up of nearly 20% in many markets profit taking would set in? There may well be a different dimension to the story: America's super financial institutions are on a war path to drive yields up in Italy now, with the same ferocity as they have done with Greek bonds, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and even France. Why only those and NOT the UK, which in % terms of GDP has a much larger debt than Italy? Let's look at a fictitious large US f

Hijacked Once upon a time, Greece was gallantly giving the world its wealth of ideas, poetry and scientific perspectives (which it had learned from Egypt, Persia, India and other places). Much of what has been achieved by the Western World can be attributed to those Greek gifts.  What has gone 'unnoticed' is that the Greeks then and today are different. And while they should be in Europe, they are by no means German in attitude and culture, nor British, Finnish or Polish.  But somehow the bigger countries happily ignore the implications when cultures clash. "a way of life: asceticism, anti-conformism and anti-conventionalism' Now they face the WRATH OF DEMOCRACY in Greek fashion, the original version so to speak.  It implies that you cannot just ride roughshod over people and their innate quirks and qualities.  This is  what could have been playing on Greece's Prime Minister's mind when he announc

This nice picture is by Abinesh .  Thanks, Abi. It's DEEPAVALI today, the festival of lights, victory of good over evil, the happy endings: Happy Deepavali to all my Indian friends and investors. We need those blessed  lights ... Deepavali or not, an investor's work is never done... Trading at the best of times is a tough task, riddled with unanswered queries, wrong-footed here, a stroke of luck there.  But the last 3 months trading was - HELL for many, when doomsday scenarios made the headlines again, just like in 2008.  During this phase, the time horizon of investors seems to melt down to hours. minutes even, and longer term investors are just forced onto the sidelines. The last 10 days' market behaviour followed the same blasted hokipoki pattern  (left foot in, right foot out, shake it all about...). Hardly that an upside is achieved, the following day erases it, - and vice versa.  What bugs me is that so little thought is given to the consequences, i.e. the

October 15, 2011 In case you are wondering what this symbol is all about and what it is doing in my blog, I am now an official contributor to the TraderPlanet , which is a website "where traders gravitate" . Stock Markets The latest rally started on a strong note ,and still shows no signs of exhaustion.  This is significant, because unlike the previous attempts in August and September, this rally is not just a function of 'short covering' or bears being wrong footed.  Carry traders are getting back into action ( =USD retreats from highs] and money flows reach beyond the US circle of influence. Recognising a change in trends is about as challenging as correctly assessing winds when sailing out at sea: a sailor often 'smells' winds and knows when - and where - danger lurks.  He does not consciously note down all his observations, the variance in wind conditions, the accompanying signs precluding such change.  It is the 'smell' that dominates his

I am suitably impressed!  (Last night..) 15:00h Wall Street time must have been the DARKEST HOUR in the midst of panic and screams to run for cover.  Financial markets had been falling unnervingly for only 3 days, yet sentiment was as disastrous as it was in midst of the chaos of 2008.  Telling anyone to stop fretting fell mostly on deaf ears: " He's nuts, he's lost it now!" Those who threw away their assets with no regard to their value will have reason to regret shortly, unless you still have the gumption to do a mental turnaround as swiftly as US equity market traders did. Intraday Throughout most of the day, market participants had resigned themselves to be miserable; the opening was 1.5% below the Monday close and the misery almost paralysed price movements.  Then, at around 15:00, someone came out of a meeting and said: "I got it!" - referring to lots of money to invest and the absolute conviction of doing the right thing.  In the last hour

Model Portfolios since inception in October 2009 to September 22nd, 2011. Model Portfolios will be updated monthly or when a significant change has happened.The latest data typically is always at least three days old, due to the forward pricing of its funds. For questions or comments please click here !  The fat lines are our portfolios, the narrow lines are benchmarks and indices. PortA , PortB , PortC and PortD are actively managed.   PortE (not shown in the chart above, because inception was only beginning of 2011) is semiactively managed, i.e. switched every 3 months or on a larger longer-term change in trend.  Click here for more info on this portfolio. La test update: September 22, 2011 Our Portfolios are now some 20-25% ABOVE global and Asian market indices and benchmark funds, when viewed since inception, almost exactly 2 years ago.   Switches since inception: We have made a few more switches since May 2011, the previous update (last transactions