Rainer's Investment Insights

Most commentators' spiel aims at convincing you one way or another to buy something. Some take the trouble to explain why you should. I tend to only comment when I see a real potential for change, change that you can follow and trade at some point - with a positive outcome. Today, I want to highlight a few potentials and how they are related. A change usually comes with a comrade or two. It does not mean you need to get ready to jump in straight away, but the signs are accumulating. The most important assets to watch are commodities, including oil and precious metals equities bonds I would say that at least in two the of three asset classes major change is breaking. To evaluate how these changes are coming about, here a brief overview of the important/ most watched indices. USD 1-month view, rising dramatically ever since the election results. Source; chartnexus But before all that, one acute BREAK in the pattern of GOLD PRICES is really important now: Prices h

Post Election Brief "Jetzt haben wir den Salad", the Germans say, which translates as, "Now we've got the salad". Trump is president-elect. Family harmonies still ruptur over lunch discussions, as to how the US got itself into hot soup but - like it or not - they will have to eat it.  When opinions become too one-sided before an event, the chances of an unexpected outcome are high, - and I did warn about it just last Monday,  Volatility revisited CBOE BREXIT TO TRUMP, source: chartnexus To follow through here the updated chart of the volatility that I talked about before the election . The pale arrows in the orange oval indicated my expectations. But they were thwarted. Volatility fell far lower, almost touching the trend line drawn from previous lows, thus acting as a support line.  We are at an important juncture time-wise, despite the confusion in the markets. If market participants continue to respond as panicky as they did all l

Equities from Australia to U.K, are having a bumper day (November 7, 2016)! Stock market investors are said to have responded to the FBI's decision not to go after Hillary Clinton. Looks like these guys want a lady as the next US President. But the turnaround could also just be a relief rally BEFORE the next rout starts. After all, if the race to the presidential finish line turns out to be as close as reported, we will only know more by next Wednesday morning. Source: chartnexus, THE CBOE Volatility index, June 2016 till now. Source: chartnexus, S&P 500, as BREXIT NO VOTE HITS. The CBOE volatility chart provides insight into the currents in the marketplace: Focus on the left of the chart, above the "BREXIT" ARROW. The last big spikes occurred end of June in conjunction with the shocking No Vote in the UK, opening the door to the BREXIT, the exit of the UK from the EU. The chart movements then are relevant to today. Initially volatility ro