Rainer's Investment Insights

Most commentators' spiel aims at convincing you one way or another to buy something. Some take the trouble to explain why you should. I tend to only comment when I see a real potential for change, change that you can follow and trade at some point - with a positive outcome. Today, I want to highlight a few potentials and how they are related. A change usually comes with a comrade or two. It does not mean you need to get ready to jump in straight away, but the signs are accumulating. The most important assets to watch are commodities, including oil and precious metals equities bonds I would say that at least in two the of three asset classes major change is breaking. To evaluate how these changes are coming about, here a brief overview of the important/ most watched indices. USD 1-month view, rising dramatically ever since the election results. Source; chartnexus But before all that, one acute BREAK in the pattern of GOLD PRICES is really important now: Prices h...

October 7, 2016 A Month With A Bad Record! Statistically, October has the worst record for stock markets. So far, I am inclined to say, it's happening again. Indeed, s ometimes, markets leave me speechless. This week for instance.  Last Friday (September 30), we still paid $1324 for the ounce. The rally seemed intact, the USD range bound.  On Monday, some profit taking set in, nothing out of the norm, as gold prices retreated to $1313. Tuesday morning still looked fine. And then, from 1 p.m. to 10 p.m. (end of day trading in the US), gold fell to $1268, a loss of 3.5%. That price level I considered save for a number of reasons, had it not frequently proven to be a formidable support level. But it wasn't to be. Today, Gold is priced $1252 at their lowest point, and I am not convinced that this is a level from which to expect a rebound. Indeed, right now, the best thing for prices to happen is to retreat to $1200. From such an oversold position at least, the rebound wi...

September 15, 2016 Cycles Stay In Control The next few weeks are crucial to the truth of this statement: We said, gold prices will start to rise as of now.  I expected stock prices to see a short term peak on the September 15, - TODAY - , and then retreat in big steps, possibly till late in November.  I expected the USD to start softening, - and interest rates to stay put at least till after the US elections. Continued divergence in indices globally can be attributed to the dissonance in monetary policies between the US and the rest of the world. But that alone is insufficient as a cause. Central banks can reduce or increase short term interest rates, but the markets decided the real rates in mortgages, yields in bonds, and long term interest rates.  Gold prices are just about turning up today, from a low of $1317. A slow rise will improve the chances of a lasting change in direction.  Stock markets have seen major volatility increase, daily move...

GOLD  When mentioning "GOLD", I really mean Gold and Silver. Their fortunes are intertwined and rarely uncorrelated in price. Explaining where we are with gold prices is only half the story. Most people invest in gold via gold funds and gold ETFs. Certificates are easier - and safer - to keep in the house than the actual metal. But first, I want to discuss gold prices.  The last time I talked about this asset class was in May, March, and February of this year. Indeed, it was only in February of this year that it was worth talking about gold after long spell of falling prices lasting 5 years. GOLD: a 5 year correction ends in December 2015 ; Source: BullionVault The chart on the left shows gold prices since their high in November 2011. Catching gold at the bottom was our goal by the end of 2015. We started buying in December. After three intakes, we watched and waited. GOLD in 2016 : finally making some money again; Source: BullionVault We accurately id...

"The end is nigh for stocks to rally", or is it?  In the last paragraph of my  post from February 12th , I outlined a four-week window for a last ditch effort by the equity bulls, - very much against the noise and chatter in the media, who preferred to stir up fear that we see a disastrous extension of January's bloody correction in equities and commodities.  Needless to say that my proposed strategy returned a handsome profit, even with as basic an investment tool as mutual funds.Importantly, the choice of funds,  and the tactical adjustments in between,  made all the difference.  Re-Introducing A Model Portfolio Due to change of software and provider, I am restarting the model as of January 1st, 2016. This portfolio is in line with a high risk profile, which means we limit the equity exposure to a maximum quotient of 90%, with the remaining 10% invested in bonds and cash. At no point during this period did we expose the portfolio to more ris...