Rainer's Investment Insights

September 15, 2016 Cycles Stay In Control The next few weeks are crucial to the truth of this statement: We said, gold prices will start to rise as of now.  I expected stock prices to see a short term peak on the September 15, - TODAY - , and then retreat in big steps, possibly till late in November.  I expected the USD to start softening, - and interest rates to stay put at least till after the US elections. Continued divergence in indices globally can be attributed to the dissonance in monetary policies between the US and the rest of the world. But that alone is insufficient as a cause. Central banks can reduce or increase short term interest rates, but the markets decided the real rates in mortgages, yields in bonds, and long term interest rates.  Gold prices are just about turning up today, from a low of $1317. A slow rise will improve the chances of a lasting change in direction.  Stock markets have seen major volatility increase, daily moves of 2% and more, c

GOLD  When mentioning "GOLD", I really mean Gold and Silver. Their fortunes are intertwined and rarely uncorrelated in price. Explaining where we are with gold prices is only half the story. Most people invest in gold via gold funds and gold ETFs. Certificates are easier - and safer - to keep in the house than the actual metal. But first, I want to discuss gold prices.  The last time I talked about this asset class was in May, March, and February of this year. Indeed, it was only in February of this year that it was worth talking about gold after long spell of falling prices lasting 5 years. GOLD: a 5 year correction ends in December 2015 ; Source: BullionVault The chart on the left shows gold prices since their high in November 2011. Catching gold at the bottom was our goal by the end of 2015. We started buying in December. After three intakes, we watched and waited. GOLD in 2016 : finally making some money again; Source: BullionVault We accurately id