Rainer's Investment Insights

When I open my inbox it is inevitably filled up with messages commenting on past events, facts and figures that are out of date, and old conclusions that have become irrelevant.  We have to accept that it is the nature of "news' to age rather quickly nowadays. But some commentators are worse than others, like the investment report sent out Aug 21st,  dated end of July recounting events in June... At the same time, my investors (including me) always expect to receive (and provide) updates that are not only timely, - but also are still relevant at the time when WE read it, ideally.  We are so insatiably idealistic in our pursuit of perfection ... while having to grin and bear with limitations. Gold Gold Prices this month:    1. take profit above 10% gain ,    2 . target forecast at 1886 ,    3. the peak at 1911    4. the two-day downfall of some 8% I have been commenting on gold prices for many months now.  The latest comment to a private client went out on the da

DAX - UPTREND TILL JULY & SUBSEQUENT FALL It all started to fall apart yesterday afternoon.  Ze Big Boyz were selling, and selling hard, with the DAX losing 4% in the first hours of trade.  The DAX is of course the biggest target now, has it not defied any gravitational pull from any corrective phase in the first half of the year.  Even the Japan disaster was a one-day affair, rectified in the shortest possible time. The latest fall from grace Since early August, the DAX dropped 25%, the biggest fall of indices worldwide, - making up for all the corrective phases that did not produce the 'desired' effect.  By comparison, the STI is in a down trend, which started in November 2010.  The final, but equally abrupt drop of -12.5% in the Singapore index was therefore benign by comparison.  STI - DOWNTREND SINCE NOVEMBER 2010 I have chosen to compare these two indices, as representative of two major economic realities: E

As I was revisiting longer term charts in an effort to find answers to current shortcomings, a few things stand out that somehow do not receive a lot of attention, although they SHOULD. I am always astounded how little merit is given to the relativity of pricing, - the measure by which you denominate the value of an index.  What I mean is that we monitor asset valuations in the currency they are traded in and often do not take account of variances in the currency against foreign currencies - of foreign investors. Swiss Market - Swiss Franc in disassociation This is a chart, which should scare its investors to 'death'.  Here, we see the Swiss index rise from March 2009 to its highest point in May 2010.  That was a real rise, meaning that valuations were supported by the Swiss Franc, which remained stable during that period.  Thereafter, the Swiss index has been stepping lower every so often, before the final rout over the last two weeks, which resulted in falls to within j

This telling comment comes from Christeen Skinner , a UK based financial Astrologer.  But it could have come from any serious market observer.  The last few week's market action did not just take novice traders by surprise.  Indeed, I would say the large majority of even the most proficient market timers got this one wrong, except may be those who instigated the sell off. The Who's Who in this case is probably not so obvious to many: The US government struggled to find consensus and agreement on raising the US debt ceiling. But when ideological righteousness comes into play, common values - and common sense fly out the window.  In the end, some sort of deal was thrashed out, but hardened market participants thought otherwise. So, who was so disgruntled to start selling his holdings big time?  One of my regular readers recounts a comment in the news that, Goldman Sachs had instructed their overseas partners in Hong Kong and other parts of Asia to start selling - on August 9th

I rarely refer to other publications as a means to explain better, i.e. simpler, more eloquent, better researched because it is not often I find someone's work to be totally in line with a visionary investment process of asset allocation. I am inserting a link to a report by Collins Stewart , a reputable British firm with excellent researchers and reporting skills (compared to mine) when it comes to nailing down a topic: The Debt Issues in the US and Europe. Rather than simply rehashing media views in stereotypical fashion, the author describes knowledgeably and with thoughtful insight where we are in this ongoing saga.  Moreover he does not shrink away from outlining the rather stark consequences if we continue to "kick the can down the road" while sticking our heads in the sand.   PLEASE TAKE 5 MINUTES OUT-TIME TO READ IT.  I would be very surprised if you don't find it of real insight and value. Of course, in the short term -  everything, the debt problems