"Soft Landing" ahead!

Merry Christmas 2010
 
As expected by our cyclical research, markets are treading a bit softer over the coming few trading days before a final push into the New Year.  Whether the actual downside pressure will amount to much remains to be seen. I don't see swings of more than -2/-3%.  This softness in the markets will manifest itself different in the various countries and sectors, - which is really what we are seeing in our portfolios at the moment:

Gold rallied into $1425  (Dec 6), and is on a slide since. I expect prices to remain above $1360 per ounce. China stocks are having a tough time rallying, and even Indian and Singapore indices are somewhat lackluster.  Currencies continue their rollercoaster moves.  In other words, nothing out of the ordinary for the Christmas season: lower volumes, the annual window dressing exercise by institutional investors, clearing the deck of non-performers and of course early profit taking.
Overall our portfolios are mildly in plus after the last switching action in November.  And - YTD, we remain in positive territory and well above benchmarks and indices on all counts. 

This is a time when minds drift, looking at bottom lines, planning for 2011.  We had a great seminar on Monday, December 13, on just such themes.  I don't think anyone in the hall left thinking that the next 12 months are NOT going offer growth potential - and how we will go about harnessing it.

This year, we may have been a little too cautious after September, sticking to bonds and cash, when equity markets received the QE2 boost. But its really an argument for hindsight visionaries. The changes we shall make to our investment strategy for 2011 are not in relation to "higher equity allocation" but reducing the ensuing volatility where we can.  Still sounds conservative?  Not if you have seen what everyone got to see that Monday - the Supercycle outlook!  


We are now planning for our annual START OF THE YEAR EVENT, which falls on 11-1-11 (Jan 11, 2011).  As is customary, we are probably the first FA company to state our case - unequivocally, uncompromisingly, controversially even.  You will see the details and invitation on the blog - soon. 


For now, I am signing off for the year, wishing all readers and blog followers a blessed holiday season and a New Year full of nice surprises - everyday. 


With my best wishes
RWK

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Financial Market Update April 17, 2020

Image
Almost 4 years of silence and no excuse... well, at least not one I can talk about without stirring up hate mail 😁. I will try and make up for it.  I would also like to remind the reader that time and events pass through a high speed rendering past comments superfluous, though also more poignant at times.  Today, this report reflects on the following topics: Financial Market Update April 17, 2020 DRIVING UNDER THE INFLUENCE -  Financial Markets beleaguered by COVID-19 Preamble COVID-19 Grounded  The Damage is Done, Facts and Charts Asset correlations   Early warning signs Summary Part 1 "This Time, It is Different" Short-term Brief Past Events and their Lessons  1987, Black Monday 2000, tech bubble burst  2008, banking crisis Lessons learnt Summary Part 2 A Big Picture View  Should we have known? Living in Denial Quo Vadis, Caesar? Summary Part 3a  “The required commercial impetus” Financial Assets to wa
Read more

Financial Markets Out Of Sync Part I

Image
click here for  Financial Markets Out Of Sync Part II In my last post, I reintroduced my model . How else can I prove that my work carries benefits? Soon, I will elaborate on the model attribution, its strategy, and the reasoning behind the tactical changes over time.   Today, it's all about WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW with the markets. Last week, I said, global equities are getting out of sync. Now we can show how disjointed the markets have become. The information may help the experienced investor, though everyone wants direction and targets for future market moves. I will do so in this report, valid for the coming weeks, covering equities, commodities and currencies, each asset class in a separate blog post. It's an extra chance to adjust your positions accordingly, if you think my mumblings make sense.  Part 1 EQUITIES - USA and Canada equities I will show charts of Northern American, European, and Asian indices. You will note the divergence, and the red fat ar
Read more

A Turning Point in the Making

Image
The WOW-factor to be had from combining technical analysis of the financial markets and the time cycles once again managed to make my hair stand on ends! Last night's losses in the US stock markets came when Mr Average least expected it, - and the size of the step down mirrors the step up on July 7 th . It also means that the pull back is a very short term affair, as the one day move has retraced almost 50% of the advance in the DJIA . What becomes clear from the chart that the most recent advance, commencing July 5th, was doomed to fail as soon as it would enter the Ichimoku Cloud (blue shaded cloud form) at a point, where the formation was very dense. It is exactly the reason, why I recommended to remain on the sidelines during this hapless endeavour. Now that we are out of the cloud, the immediate downward pressure will ease. How much more downside is left? Where are the potential support levels? The 50% retracement for the short term move in July would be 10,040 1
Read more