Rainer's Investment Insights

Model Portfolios since inception in October 2009 to September 22nd, 2011. Model Portfolios will be updated monthly or when a significant change has happened.The latest data typically is always at least three days old, due to the forward pricing of its funds. For questions or comments please click here !  The fat lines are our portfolios, the narrow lines are benchmarks and indices. PortA , PortB , PortC and PortD are actively managed.   PortE (not shown in the chart above, because inception was only beginning of 2011) is semiactively managed, i.e. switched every 3 months or on a larger longer-term change in trend.  Click here for more info on this portfolio. La test update: September 22, 2011 Our Portfolios are now some 20-25% ABOVE global and Asian market indices and benchmark funds, when viewed since inception, almost exactly 2 years ago.   Switches since inception: We have made a few more switches since May 2011, the previous update ...

Some people applaud the FED for not announcing another QE.  While acknowledging that there are limits to what a central bank can do, they are preparing us for tougher times ahead in the markets. Not a bad idea if you know you need to wean people and governments of excessive debts, excessive consumption, excessive reliance on oil, excessive anything that causes the imbalances. On the other hand, they added nothing new to the prevailing perception of economies in the US and globally, so why then, did investors sell off after the announcement? I am not going to question again, whether or not investors are so easily brainwashed by the media spin to sell off in fright! As far as I can see, in these last few days of trading I saw no fear, no panic, but sheer calculated trading: sold Asian sovereigns => bought US dollars => US dollar appreciates / Asian currencies 'fall' sold Asian stocks => bought US dollars => US dollar appreciates / Asian stock markets fall sold ...

When most people bet on one outcome only, it is often the wrong one! Currency traders, carry traders, bond fund managers and commodity traders were all banking on a forever weakening USD. Indeed, they sought to reassure and reaffirm through daily doses of media stories and selective analysis. Such high levels of consensus develop when too many focus on too few factors, like problems with government budgets and deficits, an apparent slow-down in the economy, political storms in the US congress, more trouble in Europe.  None of those hit the mark (i.e. really dictate current market behaviour), but hotly discussed in the media and elsewhere. So it must be important? Relevant? Sure, many trading decisions might be based on such notions, - mainly the short term, ill tempered and ill timed decision by rookies and those who lack the ability, discipline, vision, understanding required. That is OK, too: There are a few good traders, and - many new traders. The latter will have to learn an...

"... keep in mind that the dominant trend remains persistently bearish. That is the bias. In a bear market, surprises come to the downside. Typically, there is no safe place to hide in a Dow Theory Primary Tide Bear Market. Even those stocks that have held up relatively well through most of the Bear Market eventually succumb to the relentless tide of selling."  Robert W. Colby, CMT, Chartered Market Technician, http://robertwcolby.com/index.html The gentleman, who made this statement, speaks with decades of experience in analysing capital markets.  One major query remains: are we - or are we NOT - in a primary tide bear market phase?  How do we decide?  Who decides? And how fatalistic should we view such a decision? No way out?  Must bite the bullet? Meanwhile... Short Term Events: BRAZIL's BOVESPA: the lowest point 8/8/2011 A super bullish week in the stock markets till September 1st took most pessimists by surprise. Solid returns wer...