Rainer's Investment Insights

In November 27th, last year , I wrote about the USD - and the markets when most people saw little hope for Europe, stock markets, and life in general!  Then I stated that such a view is deplorable on a personal level and stupid on a professional level. The universe is neither stupid nor given to despondent states of mind!   A Most Important Change SGD / USD - going from strength to strength since 2008 As a Singapore Dollar investor, we had a tough time over the last few years, extracting gains from other markets, while our own currency was going from strength to strength.  This situation has seen a major change in September last year.  In the aftermath, we learned about its significance from Henderson's Chief Economist, Bill MacQuaker ,who described it as “co-ordinated policy responses from Central banks.” Somehow, these guys (the Central Bankers) agreed to support the USD at a higher level, and - thereby reduce currency volatility, which so often causes havoc...

It is the second day of the Water Dragon Year, - and rightfully (... according to Asian tradition) I should not be working today. The last blog was posted more than a month ago, though not because I was indulging in seasonal laxness: I was attending to client portfolios to make sure we take advantage of the recent opportunities in the market.  And I tended to family obligations for Christmas, hardly something you could seriously call 'indulging'. source: Christian Science Museum , via staticflicks.com As Chinese New Year tradition demands, here is a telling picture of a dragon totally mesmerised by an oversized pearl.   It is a very beautiful sight indeed, but I can't help wondering whether this pearl is a size too big for this dragon?  Will he bite off more than he can chew?  Or are we underestimating the dragon's ability to rule the roost - and businesses in general - as he so often accomplished in past Dragon Years? Yes, you guessed it. We may well...

While stock markets appear to take a wait and see stance, Europe's future is once again in the hands of its politicians, who meet on Friday.  Forget Wikileaks, here comes StanPooLeaks Not as catchy for sure, but just as fumbling, and yes, just about as smelly as it sounds!  Standard & Poors muscle in on the debate over Europe again.  In case anyone was doubting the seriousness of the situation and - the concern of the US in this respect, Standard & Poors published their preliminary findings about where Europe's credit worthiness is heading - in time to wake up even the sleepiest of undecided leaders.  Suitably, the response from Germany in particular ranged from robust to arrogant, just what must be expected.  They have not forgotten that it was the same rating agency that could not find anything wrong with Lehman Brothers a week before it collapsed, nor did they bat an eyelid when advising on the now notorious mortgage certificates touted to foreign ...

TO REDIRECT TO THE LATEST UPDATE, CLICK HERE! Since the last update in September , it was like living in revolving doors! Swings in the markets were never longer than a few weeks and yet the velocity and size of the moves, tempting on the way up, destructive on the way down, caused havoc with time lines and - bottom lines.  However, WE DID NOT SIT ON THE SIDELINES THIS TIME, but tried our best to recapture the losses of early August! First, the overview since inception in October 2009, for Portfolios A-D, with D (yellow line) being the highest risk. For more description please click here . RETURN OVERVIEW SINCE INCEPTION: (25 months) (on SGD basis!) MSCI WORLD                      = down -3%  MSCI Asia Pacific                = down -11% LionGlobal MAP Growth   = down  -7% LionGlobal MAP Balanced= down  -2%  Un...

The noise of the talking heads has become deafening.  Most investors have lost heart as a result.  That makes it more difficult to keep to a distinct and clearly marked investment path. However, is this miserable mood really justified? - No, no I am not talking about fundamentals, the potential fallout from Europe imploding, US not agreeing to reduce a deficit, instead rather harp on overdone ideologies. And I am sure you can come up with another 50 examples of why calamity in stock markets is just around the corner.  I am talking about technical analysis of the advanced kind, the ones with reliable forecast ability. It's all in the eyes of the beholder: if you are uncertain and more inclined to expect the worst, no amount of fair indications will turn you head.  What is needed is the convinction that a problem, ANY problem, will come with adequate solutions, ultimately, if we only keep our wits together.  Sadly, the majority of our news caster have be...

iGP, the Singapore platform for Accredited Investors , has published an interview in their latest iGP magazine.  Since I am one of three investment directors providing answers to iGP questions, I wanted to include it here on the blog as well, as you may not be able to obtain the magazine where you are. For ease of differentiation, my responses are in bold .  But that does not mean that the other guys aren't worth reading. Titled "Finding Answers Amidst the Volatility" , iGP considers it "...wise to relook at your investment strategies. Find out what three investment experts have to say." "With the kind of market volatility we have seen this year... "I t has been quite a year. The events in Egypt and Libya affecting the Middle East as well as the catastrophe in Japan early in the year had put some pres­sure on the global markets. Coupled with the ongoing US and Europe debt crisis, investors find the markets to be fraught with uncertaint...

Financial Markets are moving so fast nowadays it is not surprising for disillusion to set in among even the most seasoned of observers.  When dealing with mutual funds only, this pace is becoming hazardous on many levels, especially the reaction and preparation time of bringing portfolios in line with moving markets. What's Happening To Markets? If you believe the talking heads, it's all about Europe, Greece and now Italy that are scaring away punters.  Pardon me for sounding terribly naive, but was it not to be expected that after a run up of nearly 20% in many markets profit taking would set in? There may well be a different dimension to the story: America's super financial institutions are on a war path to drive yields up in Italy now, with the same ferocity as they have done with Greek bonds, Portugal, Ireland, Spain and even France. Why only those and NOT the UK, which in % terms of GDP has a much larger debt than Italy? Let's look at a fictitious large US f...