UPDATE OF ASSET ALLOCATION MODEL

We have updated our Asset Allocation Model to December 2012.  To view please click here. 

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The Rally - ends here?

Image
US equities have peaked, … but before I pronounce the rally dead – and hail the start to a significant bearish phase, we ought to check how global equity indices have performed in the last 6 months and see if the price structures point to where the markets are headed next.   Santa Rally still to come? I want to pour a little water on the torches of the “Santa-rally-comes-early” torch bearers. Here is a cockeyed comment I had in my inbox this morning: “Should we worry whether the Santa Rally is on for 2015 or not?” it asks. And then goes on to insist that “the short term considerations don’t matter for the long-term investor and his investment goals.” HELLO, this is “My-Diesel-is-Clean” talk and we know what happened to those talkers next. The above chart tells us that Santa’s returns vary greatly depending on the actual period t (t= year end. t+1 then is 1 day to year end, t+2 means 2 days to year end, etc.), and the number of years. The fact that the period...
Read more

ASIA UPDATE Part 2 - India, Singapore, and more

Image
Weekly Brief (Nov 30 to Dec 4) Wasn't the week a barrage of conflicting messages and events! Volatility in financial markets picked up steam though hardly in logical consequence to the news. Correlation between assets and markets became close to 100% in US and Europe: as stock prices rose, yields rose, too, as did gold and silver prices, at least the last 2 days of the week. In Asia, however, markets moved in range, almost unperturbed by the hectic in developed world. Equities in US & EU The week started off with US and EU  equities  drifting gently lower, then a boisterous upswing on Tuesday, December 1st, yet erasing it on Wednesday. Thursday brought more downside and traders braced themselves for a negative weekly return. But on Friday, equities rallied strongly, ending the week close to the levels where it began.  Bonds US Bond yields had been falling for almost a month, yet on Thursday, they rose 20 basis points for the 10-year Treasury bill, dropp...
Read more

The Patriotic Rally Notion

Image
“World equities have peaked!” In the terrible aftermath of the Paris bombing, I read some commentators referring to the rally since last Monday as a "Patriots' Rally". I am not sure whether this term really is in use, and I can't quite imagine a Patriots' Rally to go round the world! Could someone really be considering a stock market rally as a viable battle strategy against DAESH / Islamic State? And why does the media still indulge the black flag guys by honouring the name they have given themselves? DAESH denotes who they are.  Be that as it may, since that dreadful Friday, global equity markets have been rallying as has the USD. But a continuation beyond today is hard to visualise when you look at the odds stacked against it. Some three weeks ago, I said the rally is almost dead and that in the coming weeks equity trading would be range-bound at best. My portfolio switched to safety on November 5th, one trading day after the global equity peak. I...
Read more