UPDATE OF ASSET ALLOCATION MODEL

We have updated our Asset Allocation Model to December 2012.  To view please click here. 

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Financial Market Update April 17, 2020

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Almost 4 years of silence and no excuse... well, at least not one I can talk about without stirring up hate mail 😁. I will try and make up for it.  I would also like to remind the reader that time and events pass through a high speed rendering past comments superfluous, though also more poignant at times.  Today, this report reflects on the following topics: Financial Market Update April 17, 2020 DRIVING UNDER THE INFLUENCE -  Financial Markets beleaguered by COVID-19 Preamble COVID-19 Grounded  The Damage is Done, Facts and Charts Asset correlations   Early warning signs Summary Part 1 "This Time, It is Different" Short-term Brief Past Events and their Lessons  1987, Black Monday 2000, tech bubble burst  2008, banking crisis Lessons learnt Summary Part 2 A Big Picture View  Should we have known? Living in Denial Quo Vadis, Caesar? Summary Part 3a  “The required ...
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Financial Markets Out Of Sync Part II a)

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US and Europe - SHORT TERM UPDATE Before looking at Asian financial markets, allow me to briefly update you on what has transpired since I wrote part I & II in European an d US indices.  USA indices DJTA, short-term view: March peak, followed by the expected correction, DATA SOURCE: chartnexus The only index in the US, complying with my arrows is the Dow Jones Transport Average (DJTA), and it is taking the less precipitous path. The S&P 500, DJIA and RUSSELL 2000, are in sideways consolidation since the peak on March 22, without a meaningful decline . However, that is only half the story.  USD,October 2015 - today, fitting well into Fibonacci patterns; DATA SOURCE: chartnexus The USD has been losing strength against many world currencies in recent months, - just as I had envisaged  in November 2015 . Back then, everyone expected the USD to grow stronger in anticipation of the four interest rate hikes in 2016. Well, we have learned sin...
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This is the concluding part of our mini-series, which focuses on the recent tumultuous events, namely the triple calamity in Japan, the 'Arab Spring', and Europe's problems with its peripheral states. I guess, it is now obvious that neither of the events turned into the one-off, exceptional occurrence that would destroy market values for a longer period. For most part, they appear to be starting point for change, fermentation, and portent factors for the future, all rolled into one. Each of them has the capacity to bring about a new tomorrow - for better and for worse. Hence, to stand here and say, ' this is my final conclusion ' must sound argumentative at least, contentious even. But every series must find an end. Admit it, it gets boring when asked to read part 4,5,6,7... I simply lose track on what was said before. DID THEY OR DIDN'T THEY? No matter how disastrous the suddenness of forceful change impacted on each region and its people almost simu...
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